Morgan Stanley Projects India’s GDP Growth at 7.6% for FY26
In January 2026, American brokerage firm Morgan Stanley projected India’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 7.6% Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y) for Financial Year 2025-26 (FY26), 20 basis points (bps) higher than National Statistics Office (NSO)’s latest estimate of 7.4%.
In January 2026, American brokerage firm Morgan Stanley projected India’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 7.6% Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y) for Financial Year 2025-26 (FY26), 20 basis points (bps) higher than National Statistics Office (NSO)’s latest estimate of 7.4%.
- However, India’s GDP is projected to slow down at about 6.9% in the Second Half (H2:July-September) of FY26 compared to 8% in H1(April-June) of FY26, below the firm’s previous estimate of 7.3%.
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- What? India’s GDP Projection for FY26
- Projected by: Morgan Stanley
- India’s GDP: 7.6% (FY26), 6.5% (FY27),
- Nominal GDP: 8% Y-o-Y
Key Highlights:
FY27: India’s GDP is expected to expand at 6.5% YoY in FY27.
Nominal GDP: The firm has also projected India’s nominal GDP growth rate at 8% Y-o-Y for FY26, lower than 9.7% in FY25.
Key Drivers: The report highlighted that the combined impetus from fiscal and monetary policy support, enhanced purchasing power and labour market outlook are expected to support broader consumption recovery.
Capex: The report has also projected widespread pickup in Capital Expenditure (Capex) due to rising investor confidence which will further boost private investment.
- It further underscored that Domestic demand is expected to drive growth, amidst continued tariff and global uncertainty.
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