• What? India’s GDP projection for FY27
• By Whom? Ind-Ra
• India’s GDP: 6.9% (FY27) and 7.4% (FY26)
• Major Headwinds for FY27: El Nino pattern from mid-2026; weak current due to weak investments, sluggish global trade growth; AI, among others
• PFCE: 7.6% (FY27)

Key Projections:
Risks Factors for FY27: The agency outlined some of the major headwinds that may pose risks to FY27 growth include: the El Nino pattern from mid-2026; weak current due to weak investments, sluggish global trade growth;

• Base effect (change of base year for both GDP and Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 2022-23 and 2024 from 2011-12 and 2012, respectively in next months);

Consumption Demand: Ind-Ra observed that Private Financial Consumption Expenditure (PFCE), an indicator used to measure household demand, remained subdued at 5.6% in FY24, surged to 7.2% in FY25 and improved further to 7.5% in 1st Half (H1: April-September) of FY26.

• It has also projected that PFCE, which accounts for nearly 55.9% of GDP (Q2FY26) from the demand side, will grow at 7.6% Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y) in FY27.

Inflation Outlook: As per the agency, India’s  overall inflation outlook for the Q4 (January-March) of FY26 and FY27 is benign.
About India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra):
Chairman and Managing Director (CMD)- Rohit Karan Sawhney
Headquarters- Mumbai, Maharashtra
Established- 1995